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The Economy of Bulgaria - July 2012

Center for Economic Development, Bulgaria
The Bulgarian economy is still stagnant. Although it registers a weak growth in GDP in the first quarter of 2012, NSI data show (by seasonally adjusted series) a continuing delay in growth. On an annual basis, GDP growth drops to 0.5% (from 0.9% in the last quarter of 2011) and over the previous quarter, growth is zero (compared to 0.1% for the fourth quarter of 2011). On the other hand - by unadjusted series - growth is present and demonstrates acceleration (from 0.3% to 0.9% yoy). However, while GDP grows in the first quarter of 2012, GVA produced in the economy is shrinking - it decreases on an annual basis (by 0.2% according to adjusted, and by 0.9% according to unadjusted data), and on a quarterly basis a decline is observed for a third consecutive quarter. The reported in the first quarter of 2012 weak GDP growth is completely due (by the production side) to growth in adjustments. Quarterly data on GDP and its components in the first quarter, complemented with the picture of monthly data for the first 5-6 months of 2012, i.e. NSI data available as of the July 2012 (quarterly national accounts and monthly data of short term business statistics and business surveys) do not point to a convincing positive overall economic growth for the second quarter. It is more likely to expect dynamics around zero.
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Contributor: Center for Economic Development - http://www.ced.bg
Topic: Economy and Development
Country: Bulgaria
Document Type: Economic Analyses and Commentaries
Year: 2012
Keywords: Agriculture, Banking, Capital Market, Economic Policy, Energy Policy, Environmental Policy, Public Finance, Regional Policy, Social Policy, Tourism, Transport
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